Regional insight – Africa | Energy economics

Highlights

39% to 95%

growth in primary energy in 2019-2050 under all scenarios

1% to 12%

share of coal in primary energy in 2050

43% to 69%

share of renewables in primary energy in 2050

48% to -73%

net change in CO₂ emissions by 2050

Africa’s economy grows at a rate of 3.0% a year in 2019-2050, down from 4.3% a year over the past 20 years.

Primary energy consumption increases in all three scenarios, primarily reflecting increase in prosperity as measured by GDP per head and population.

The share of renewables in electricity generation increases sharply in all three scenarios, driven by wind and solar.

Wind and solar used in electricity generation increase from almost zero today to 3 EJ, 10 EJ and 11 EJ in 2050 in New Momentum, Accelerated and Net Zero, respectively.
Oil’s share in Africa’s fuel mix declines under all scenarios, falling from 25% today to 15% in Accelerated, 9% in Net Zero and 20% in 2050 in New Momentum.

The share of natural gas consumption in total primary energy decreases in Accelerated and Net Zero to 13% and 7% respectively and increases to 20% in New Momentum by 2050 from 16% today.

Coal’s share in the primary energy mix drops in Accelerated and Net Zero, to 2% and 1% respectively by 2050 from 13% today. Coal production decreases from 7 EJ today to 3 EJ in 2050 in New Momentum and to almost zero in the other scenarios.
Production of oil declines in all scenarios in Africa. Oil production decreases sharply from 9 Mb/d today to 2 Mb/d in Accelerated and 4 Mb/d in New Momentum.
Net CO₂ emissions increase by 48% in New Momentum, due to the relatively high share of fossil fuels in the energy mix in this scenario. However, in Net Zero, net emissions decrease by 73% and by 33% in Accelerated.