Under all three scenarios Africa’s demand for electricity increases significantly, more than tripling in Net Zero and Accelerated; renewables become the dominant energy source in total primary energy by 2050
growth in primary energy in 2019-2050 under all scenarios
1% to 12%
share of coal in primary energy in 2050
43% to 69%
share of renewables in primary energy in 2050
48% to -73%
net change in CO₂ emissions by 2050
The share of electricity in Africa’s total final consumption of energy increases from 10% today to 20% in New Momentum, almost 40% in Accelerated and more than 50% in Net Zero
The share of wind and solar in electricity generation grows from 3% today to more than 70% in Accelerated and Net Zero
Natural gas production increases only in New Momentum to reach 10% of total global production from 6% today
Africa’s economy grows at a rate of 3.0% a year in 2019-2050, down from 4.3% a year over the past 20 years.
Primary energy consumption increases in all three scenarios, primarily reflecting increase in prosperity as measured by GDP per head and population.
The share of renewables in electricity generation increases sharply in all three scenarios, driven by wind and solar.
Wind and solar used in electricity generation increase from almost zero today to 3 EJ, 10 EJ and 11 EJ in 2050 in New Momentum, Accelerated and Net Zero, respectively.
Oil’s share in Africa’s fuel mix declines under all scenarios, falling from 25% today to 15% in Accelerated, 9% in Net Zero and 20% in 2050 in New Momentum.
The share of natural gas consumption in total primary energy decreases in Accelerated and Net Zero to 13% and 7% respectively and increases to 20% in New Momentum by 2050 from 16% today.
Coal’s share in the primary energy mix drops in Accelerated and Net Zero, to 2% and 1% respectively by 2050 from 13% today. Coal production decreases from 7 EJ today to 3 EJ in 2050 in New Momentum and to almost zero in the other scenarios.
Production of oil declines in all scenarios in Africa. Oil production decreases sharply from 9 Mb/d today to 2 Mb/d in Accelerated and 4 Mb/d in New Momentum.
Net CO₂ emissions increase by 48% in New Momentum, due to the relatively high share of fossil fuels in the energy mix in this scenario. However, in Net Zero, net emissions decrease by 73% and by 33% in Accelerated.