Modelling guidance
The purpose of this page is to collate existing available public information that may assist with the financial modelling of bp. Please also refer to our legal notice.
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Trading conditions update
The trading conditions update is produced in order to provide equal disclosure to all investors and potential investors of current trading conditions.
Content includes the following:
- Current and historic market prices
- Current and historic marker margins
- Rules of thumb for Brent, Henry Hub and RMM
| Operating environment rules of thumb for the full year 2023 | Impact on pre-tax replacement cost operating profit |
|---|---|
| Oil price* Brent +/- $1/bbl |
$340m |
| Natural gas price* Henry Hub +/- $0.10/mmBtu |
$30m |
| Customers & products refining margin RMM +/- $ 1/bbl |
$400m |
*combined indicator for oil production & operations and gas & low carbon energy
Find out more about our trading conditions update
Macro outlook
Below is bp's macro outlook as at 4Q22 results publication on 7 February 2023
- Oil prices: In the first quarter, bp expects prices to remain supported by recovering Chinese demand, ongoing uncertainty around the level of Russian exports and low inventory levels.
- Gas prices: bp expects the outlook for global gas prices during the first quarter to remain dependent on weather in the Northern Hemisphere and the pace of Chinese demand recovery.
- Refining margins: bp expects industry refining margins to remain elevated in the first quarter due to sanctioning of Russian crude and product.
Upcoming quarters guidance
Below is bp's 1Q23 guidance as at 4Q22 results publication on 7 February 2023
- Looking ahead, we expect first-quarter 2023 reported upstream production to be broadly flat compared to fourth quarter 2022.
- In our customers business, we expect seasonally lower volumes and in Castrol base oil prices to remain high, although lower than the fourth quarter 2022. In refining, we expect margins to remain elevated and a lower level of turnaround activity.
Full year guidance
Below is bp's 2023 guidance as at 4Q22 results publication on 7 February 2023
- bp expects both reported and underlying upstream production to be broadly flat compared with 2022. Within this, bp expects underlying production from oil production & operations to be slightly higher and production from gas & low carbon energy to be lower. Bp expects the start-up of Mad Dog Phase 2 in the second quarter of 2023 and first gas from the Tangguh expansion and GTA Phase 1 Tortue projects in the fourth quarter of 2023.
- bp expects the other businesses & corporate underlying annual charge to be in a range of $1.1-1.3 billion for 2023. The charge may vary from quarter to quarter.
- bp expects the depreciation, depletion and amortization to be slightly above 2022.
- The underlying ETR for 2023 is expected to be around 40% but is sensitive to the impact that volatility in the current price environment may have on the geographical mix of the group’s profits and losses.
- bp expects capital expenditure of $16-18 billion in 2023 including inorganic capital expenditure.
- Having realized $15.9 billion of divestment and other proceeds since the second quarter of 2020, bp now expects divestment and other proceeds of $2-3 billion in 2023 and continues to expect to reach $25 billion of divestment and other proceeds between the second half of 2020 and 2025.
- bp expects Gulf of Mexico oil spill payments for the year to be around $1.3 billion pre-tax including $1.2 billion pre-tax to be paid during the second quarter.
- Against the authority granted at bp’s 2022 annual general meeting to repurchase up to 1.95 billion shares, bp has repurchased 1.11 billion shares.
- In setting the dividend per ordinary share and buyback each quarter, the board will continue to take into account factors including the cumulative level of and outlook for surplus cash flow, the cash balance point and the maintenance of a strong investment grade credit rating.
2025 targets and 2030 aims
We now have three years under our belt. We have made good progress on our 2025 targets. And we are increasingly confident - not just in those targets - but in the opportunities presented by the energy transition. Below is a summary of the 2025 targets and 2030 aims for the Group and our three strategic focus areas.
All references to $70/bbl in the below tables refer to Brent 2021 real.
| EBITDA ($bn) | 2021 | 2022 | 2025 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $71/bbl | $103/bbl | $70/bbl | $70/bbl | |
| Resilient hydrocarbons | 30.6 | 56.9 | 40-42 | 39-42 |
| Convenience and mobility | 4.4 | 4.3 | ~7 | 9-11 |
| Low carbon energy | Growth phase | 2-3 | ||
| Group | 34.4 | 60.7 | 46-49 | 51-56 |
| Of which: Transition growth engines | 3-4 | 10-12 | ||
| Investor proposition targets | 2021 | 2022 | 2025 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $71/bbl | $103/bbl | $70/bbl | $70/bbl | |
| EBIDA per share growth (%), CAGR | >12 | |||
| ROACE (%) | 13.3 | 30.5 | >18 | >18 |
| Capital expenditure in transition (%) | ~19 | ~30 | >40 | ~50 |
| Other guidance | 2021 | 2022 | 2025 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $71/bbl | $103/bbl | $70/bbl | $70/bbl | |
| Capital expenditure ($bn) | 12.8 | 16.3 | 14-18 | 14-18 |
| Of which: Transition growth engines | 2.4 | 4.9 | 6-8 | 7-9 |
| Divestment proceeds - cumulative since 2H20 ($bn) | 7.6 | 15.9 | 25 |
| Resilient hydrocarbons (RHC) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Investing more in today's oil and gas system, growing EBITDA through the decade | ||||
| 2021 | 2022 | 2025 | 2030 | |
| $71/bbl | $103/bbl | $70/bbl | $70/bbl | |
| RHC EBITDA ($bn) | 30.6 | 56.9 | 40-42 | 39-42 |
| RHC capital expenditure ($bn) | 9.1 | 13.0 | 9-11 | 8-10 |
| Oil and gas production (mmboed) |
2.2 | 2.3 | ~2.3 | ~2.0 |
| Unit production costs ($/boe) | ~7 | ~6 | ~6 | |
| LNG portfolio (mtpa) | 18 | 19 | 25 | 30 |
| Biofuels production (mbd) | 26 | 27 | ~50 | ~100 |
| Biogas supply volumes (mboed) | 9 | 12 | ~40 | ~70 |
| Bioenergy EBITDA ($bn) | ~2 | >4 | ||
| Bioenergy expected returns (%) | >15 | |||
| Bioenergy cumulative capex (2023-30) ($bn) | ~15 | |||
| Convenience and mobility (C&M) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aim to double EBITDA to $9-11bn by 2030 with returns of 15-20% | ||||
| 2021 | 2022 | 2025 | 2030 | |
| C&M EBITDA (bn) | 4.4 | 4.3 | 7 | 9-11 |
| C&M captital expenditure ($bn) | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2-3 | 3-4 |
| Customer touchpoints per day (million) | >12 | ~12 | >15 | >20 |
| Strategic convenience sites | 2,150 | 2,400 | ~3,000 | ~3,500 |
| EV charge points (000) | ~13 | ~22 | >40 | >100 |
| Rapid and ultra fast charging points as a % of total (%) | ~50 | >60 | ~90 | |
| EV charging installed capacity (GW) | ~10 | |||
| EV charging energy sales (TWh) | ~15 | |||
| C&M expected returns (%) | 15-20 | |||
| Convenience and EV charging expected returns (%) | >15 | |||
| Convenience and EV charging EBITDA ($bn) | >1.5 | >4 | ||
| EV charging EBITDA ($bn) | ~2 | |||
| Convenience gross margin growth (%), constant fx, CAGR (2022-30) | ~10 | |||
| Low carbon energy (LCE) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aim to grow EBITDA to $2-3bn by 2030 | ||||
| 2021 | 2022 | 2025 | 2030 | |
| LCE EBITDA ($bn) | Growth phase | 2-3 | ||
| LCE capital expenditure ($bn) | 1.3 | 1.0 | 3-5 | 3-5 |
| Hydrogen production (mpta net) | 0.5-0.7 | |||
| Renewables (GW net developed to FID) | 4.4 | 5.8 | 20 | 50 |
| Renewables (GW net installed) | 1.9 | 2.2 | ~10 | |
| Hydrogen expected returns (unlevered) | Double digit | |||
| Renewables expected returns - (unlevered) (%) | 6-8 | |||
